N-type TOPCon market share will reach 25% this year

At the photovoltaic forum on the 16th, The expert said: n-type TOPCon has obvious technical advantages, and its market share will reach 25% this year.

In 2023, with its advantages of cost reduction and efficiency increase, TOPCon technology will achieve rapid volume increase in a short period of time. Cells are a continuous iterative process. At present, the mass production efficiency that PERC can achieve is 23.2% to 23.4%, and its theoretical limit efficiency is 24.5%. If calculated on the basis of an annual efficiency increase of 0.6%-0.7%, the time left for PERC Solar Module is running out. The theoretical limit efficiency of n-type TOPCon is 28.7%. At present, there is still more than 3% space, and there is still huge potential.

N-type products have advantages in many aspects. In terms of power generation performance, n-type products have lower attenuation, the attenuation is only 1% in the first year, and the linear attenuation is only 0.4% thereafter, while the relevant data for p-type products are 2% and 0.45% respectively. From the perspective of technical parameters, n-type products have obvious advantages in power output performance, and have a lower temperature coefficient and lower attenuation rate. Data shows that n-type products can achieve a 3% improvement in power generation performance compared to p-type products, and have higher reliability. Whether it is a single-sided product or a dual glass product, it can achieve a 30-year warranty.

In addition, for photovoltaic modules of the same size, the output power of n-type products is 20-25W higher than that of p-type products, and the corresponding BOS cost can be reduced by 4-5 cents/W. In terms of power generation, n-type modules can increase by about 3% compared with p-type modules, which means a 0.4%-0.6% increase in yield.

According to the forecast of a well-known third-party organization, the market share of n-type TOPCon technology will reach more than 25% in 2023, and its market share will exceed the sum of other battery technologies by 2025, reaching 54%.